Archive for May, 2008

What is a share price?

You can buy a share today in Google for US$568.24. That’s US$7.34 more than it would have cost you yesterday, and more than US$100 more than it would have cost you in March, but US$150 cheaper than at the start of this year.

Or, maybe a share in Apple for US$187.01 or Microsoft for US$28.18.

Or, if you prefer kiwi companies, a share in Air New Zealand for $1.08, Fletcher Building for $7.60 or Contact Energy for $9.11.

Or, if you like, a share in Xero for 85c.

Do those prices represent good value or not?

Q: What is a share price?

I’m interested to hear your answers…

Working for families?

This is the second post in a two part series about the tax changes announced in the budget last week. Part one is Tax matters?.

In all of this talk of tax nobody seems to be saying much about what our tax dollars are actually spent on.

David Slack’s post last Thursday reminded me of an idea that Jimmy Wales (founder of Wikipedia) put forward a while back for a transparent budget.

When people struggle to keep on top of how much they personally earn and spend, then it’s probably also true to say that they really have no idea how much tax they pay, or (more importantly) what it is spent on.

Imagine if we were each sent a statement at the end of the year which included the total amount of tax we had paid and a breakdown of how this had been allocated to the various things that the government decided should be funded using this money.

Now that so many more of us are beneficiaries, via Working For Families, Kiwisaver, Student Loan Interest Write-Offs etc, then those “credit” payments could be incorporated into the statement too.

I suspect people would think different about our “free” health and education systems, for example, if they better understood how much of their money was spent on it each year.

How much tax did you pay last year?

And what was it spent on?

Don’t you think you should know?

Tax matters?

This is the first post in a two part series about the tax changes announced in the budget last week. Part two is Working for families?

“New Zealanders expect far too much from the tax system. It now seems unfashionable to regard the tax system as simply being the Government’s primary means of collecting revenue to run the country. People expect it to also resolve poverty, reduce income inequalities, compensate for surging food and petrol prices and incentivise savings.”
– John Shewan, Chairman of PricewaterhouseCoopers, commenting on this weeks budget.

Who would want to be a Minister of Finance?

Can you wait until the election campaign, and the “my tax cut is bigger than yours!” smack down contest, starts? Or will it be the “my propensity to cut spending is bigger than yours!” content now?

Now the team in the red corner has announced their package, how many more blocks of cheese can you afford? That seems the be the question.

And, how many blocks are you expecting the blue corner to offer?

Have you factored in the cost of petrol?

A litre of 91 unleaded now costs NZ$2.00, which is about US$1.56 at current exchange rates. Let’s hope that the dollar doesn’t drop back to 62c anytime soon (like it did at the peak of the last economic cycle), as even assuming the price of oil stays the same as it is now (which seems unlikely) that would mean we’d be paying closer to $3.00 a litre. Suddenly cars are a luxury item!

There is no point, surely, in having the cash for an extra block of cheese when you can’t afford to drive to the supermarket to pick it up.

Do we pay too much tax? Compared to what?

Does the amount of tax we pay make us all less productive?

I don’t know, but I suspect there is an argument to say that lower tax rates just mean that those who are motivated to be successful either way get to keep more of the money they earn.

Although it does create the right incentives for government to keep their spending under control (just like an over-funded start up business, they don’t seem to struggle to find ways to spend the money they have). More about this tomorrow.

Like John Shewan explains above, I think we’re all expecting too much from “the system”.

Is it up to the government to make us feel rich?

Or is it more about the number on the top line of our pay slips (i.e. the bit we influence)?

Here is a interesting comment about the changes to the business tax system which were introduced earlier this year:

“Businesses need to ask themselves two basic questions. Will a bit of tax relief for export marketing and R&D be worth the bureaucratic trouble to get it? And is your failure to export or do R&D simply a matter of being short of a few dollars? Or is it a fundamental failure of ambition, management skills and strategy?”

– Rod Oram, in Dominion Post (sorry, the link I have no longer works: http://stuff.co.nz/4042265a1865.html)

I think the same questions could be asked of individual tax payers too.

What do you think?

What will you do with your tax cuts?

Will they make you work harder? Or bugger off to Australia?

Does a few dollars a week change your vote in either direction?

Or, are there other things that are more important?

How many can you recognise?

On the back of a napkin

MG is following a proud tradition and trying some different ways of attracting attention to some Trade Me job opportunities.

I was given one of these this week:

It would appear the perfect candidate is somebody who hassles their colleagues, steals things and surfs porn at work. :-)

PS:

I still can’t work out why Trade Me isn’t inundated with people wanting to work there. If I was an up-and-coming web person in NZ it’s the first place I’d look, even if it was just to get some experience for a couple of years. There is nothing even close to it. But it doesn’t seem to happen. I saw a documentary this week which included an interview with Richard Taylor from Weta - he said they get many thousands of applications each year for just a handful of positions. Why the difference do you think? Do people just not realise how much they could learn from working at Trade Me?

Interested in your thoughts …

Maybe they’re not stalling, maybe they’re just really busy

Nat Torkington taught me an excellent saying, which seems appropriate at the moment:

“Never ascribe to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence”

Sorry to everybody whose waiting for me at the moment! :-)

Rhino vs. Unicorn

I love this shirt from Threadless:

Runnin' Rhino

Buy your own here: Runnin’ Rhino

Based on this blog post about it, there seems to be some disagreement about exactly what is going on in this scene.

The authors boyfriend sees a rhino who dreams of one day being as slim as the unicorn, and wants to give him a hug and tell him that “he’s just fine as he is”.

In the comments others are hypothesising about the background…

“… of course, everyone knows that leaves and bark make you fat - bark is probably…carbs.”

Others have a completely different scenario in mind…

“I think the unicorn is the rhino’s web hotty - they met online and he told her he was a unicorn too. Now he’s 3 days away from meeting her at the airport, trying so hard to look good in his rhino skin”

And some people just take it all way too seriously…

“The part that gets me most is that UNICORNS DON’T EVEN FUCKING EXIST! Rhino is being tormented by an ideal that doesn’t even manifest in the real world.”

Yeah, and a rhino on a treadmill - you see that all the time!

:-)

Smart Photo Resize

A while back I linked to a seemingly magic piece of technology, called “Image Retargeting” which could resize images without distorting the contents.

http://rowansimpson.com/2007/12/04/image-retargeting/

Well, as somebody recently pointed out to me, this technology is now available for the masses.

Check out: http://fotoflexer.com/

Load up an image, click on the “Geek” tab, and choose the “Smart Resize” option.

You can shrink or grow the image, and even select specific parts of the image to preserve or remove.

It’s not quite a smooth as the demo in the video, but it’s not bad.

Let me know if you do something interesting with this and I’ll link to the results from here.

Enjoy!

FAQs with attitude

I like websites which demonstrate the personality of the people behind them.

I’ve written about this here several times previously:

Here’s another nice example I spotted recently…

Two of the frequently asked questions listed on instapaper.com:

Will you add (useful feature)?

Maybe!

Instapaper is brand new, and it’s a side project of a developer who works on something bigger, so development time is limited. But great features are always possible, especially if enough people request them.

There are some great ideas in the works… stay tuned.

Will you add (obscure feature)?

Probably not, sorry.

There are plenty of other sites that offer similar functionality but with thousands of additional features to satisfy every obscure desire. Instapaper is great because it’s so simple, and keeping it simple is the first priority.

Nice!

Your thing is cooler

This is clever:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSjwLmepdtk

Via: Silicon Alley Insider

If you can’t laugh at yourself, I suppose. :-)

Fixing Personal Finance Software

How much do you spend each month?
How much do you earn each month?

I’m not talking about your business, I’m talking about your personal finances.

On the surface these are simple questions.

But, I’d bet that you don’t know exactly. Why is that?

Most people can tell you more-or-less how much money they have (or don’t have!) in their main bank account. But, as soon as you throw in a credit card and perhaps a separate savings account or some investments, getting a summary and tracking movements across all of your accounts is not straight forward.

And, while every salary earner can tell you how much they make per year gross, it’s not so clear cut once you deduct PAYE, student loan repayments, KiwiSaver contributions, etc, and then perhaps throw in some interest from a savings account to top it up. If you’re paid weekly or fortnightly it can be difficult.

What’s more, in my experience, it’s surprisingly difficult to answer these two questions accurately without investing serious amounts of time in managing your finances.

It’s not that people don’t care, or prefer not to know.

Consider this quote from a former developer on the Microsoft Money team (the bits in bold are as in his original post):

“The majority of consumers who buy computers claim that personal finance management is one of the top three reasons they are purchasing a PC. They’ve been claiming this for more than a decade. But only somewhere around 2% of consumers end up using a personal finance manager, with Intuit Quicken and Microsoft Money dominating the market. Both products have been around for — you guessed it — more than a decade. This dramatic disconnect between consumer demand and actual market penetration is mind-boggling.

Take a guess at what percentage of consumers launch Money ever again, after running it only once. You’ll need to remove a digit from whatever percentage you’re currently guessing. It’s seriously that low. Granted, most copies of Money are actually pre-installed by the OEM on consumer machines, so you’re not exactly dealing with a captive audience. But we’re still looking at a huge discrepancy between expressed consumer desire and actual consumer behavior.”

Source: http://blogs.msdn.com/philipsu/archive/2004/07/01/170682.aspx

So, based on this evidence, you’d have to say that the tools are broken.

How do we fix this?

How can software help rather than hurt?

What makes it so hard at the moment?

The popular applications (Microsoft Money, Quicken, etc) are all simplified versions of business accounting packages, so they start with an assumption that you will categorise every transaction. This is where the problems begin…

Firstly, you need to come up with a set of categories that suit your spending habits. On the surface this is easy, but the devil is in the detail. For example, do you have one category for “Food” or do you split it out into “Groceries”, “Restaurants”, “Take Aways”, etc. You are forced to choose between a few high-level categories, which make it easier to categorise but don’t provide so much detail, or a nightmare of categories and sub-categories and sub-sub-categories.

Secondly, you need to get your transactions from your bank into your system. Overseas the tools integrate with the banks to automate this process, but here you need to manually log into your bank, export a file and then import into your application from there. This is a huge barrier to updating your accounts on a regular basis.

Then, assuming you can get all of that right, you still need to invest the time it takes to categorise each and every transaction each month. This is where it can quickly start to get ridiculous. If you tend to use EFT-POS a lot like I do then you’ll have hundreds of transactions to categorise each month. And if you don’t, you’ll need to remember how you spent your cash. For example, if you take $100 out from the ATM and spend it on various things over the course of a week, how do you deal with that? Or, if you buy a chocolate bar from the petrol station does that get split out or grouped in with “Petrol” or “Car” or “Transport” (or whatever category you’ve decided on to track that particular expense).

Some of the newer online tools have tried to use the advantages of the web to address some of these problems.

Wesabe allows you to tag transactions - so each transactions can be logged in multiple categories. They also recommend tags based on their community of users. Mint takes this a step further and tried to automatically code your transactions for you. The downside is that you have less control over the categories used, and have to live with some inaccuracy (they wouldn’t be able to deal with the chocolate bar and petrol example above, for example).

Wesabe has a browser plug-in which partly automates the transaction import for you. Mint fully automates this process by asking for the login details to your online banking site. As far as I can tell anybody who does this will breach the terms of use of their online banking site, and leave themselves exposed from a security perspective, so I wouldn’t recommend it.

There must be a better way!

So, let’s step back and question the assumption that underpins most, if not all, of these problems:

Do you actually need to categorise every transaction?

I don’t think so *.

Go back to the questions that I asked at the top of this post.

To answer those you simply need to be able to add up all of the money paid into your accounts (your income) and all of the money paid out of your accounts (your spending). Any transfers between your accounts can be ignored

Imagine a system which would do that automatically for you - no work required, just login and see the totals, updated each day.

And, if you could create a system that people would actually use then there are lots of potentially interesting things you could start to layer on top of that.

You could show trends to show how spending is increasing or decreasing. You could allow people to create “goals” - a savings target, or a specific debt to repay - and display a barometer to track their progress. Or, you could recommend related products or services that are likely to be of interest to that user, based on their earning and spending habits. These are the things that people actually have in mind when they say that they want to use their computer to manage their finances. But they are just three simple examples. I’m sure you can think of others.

Who could do this?

The banks should be able to do this sort of thing really easily, because they already have the transaction data. But, I’m not holding my breath.

Most online banking systems feel more like a thin layer of lipstick on a crappy underlying banking system rather than a web application designed with any consideration for what the users wants to do. And, while it may be a little unkind, I just don’t back a large bank to be able to execute on this sort of application.

And any bank that tried to do this would need to work out how to source transaction data from other banks so that all accounts can be included (this actually isn’t as unlikely as it sounds - when I was in the UK I used Egg.com for my online banking, and they were able to display transactions from my HSBC accounts via their clever Money Manager system).

So I reckon this is an opportunity waiting for somebody to grab it.

Perhaps I should suggest this to the team at Xero?

* If you’re stuck with a system that insists you categorise every transaction, you can get the same results by limiting yourself to just two categories: “Income” and “Expense”.

Related posts (manually generated):

Additional reading:

It’s mostly unrelated to the topic of this post, but the MSDN blog I linked to above is actually quite entertaining. He seems to write one excellent blog post each year. I like his style! :-)

No news is good news

I’m spending next week offline.

No email. No RSS. No blogging.

It will be interesting to see how it goes.

I’ll let you know this time next Sunday.

In the meantime, here’s a good story from Sir Ken Robinson’s book “Out Of Our Minds“:

“A well known British journalist was reminiscing about his early days in radio news. He joined the BBC in the 1930s at a time when there was no regular news bulletin. In his first week, a bulletin was scheduled and he arrived at the studio to watch it being broadcast. The presenter sat at the microphone and waited until the time signal had finished. He then announced sombrely: ‘This is the BBC Home Service from London. There is no news’. The view of the times was that news would be broadcast if anything happened to warrant it.”

I didn’t realise it until now, but less is nostalgic.

PlanHQ Gold

Congratulations to Tim and the rest of the team at PlanHQ for picking up the “Emerging Gold” at the Wellington Gold Awards this week. The list of previous winners of this category is quite impressive, including Icebreaker in 2001 and Virtual Katy in 2005. Hopefully PlanHQ will live up to the billing and go on to great things.

Celebrations aside, there were a couple of ironic moments for me during the evening …

The last time I attended was in 2005, when Trade Me was nominated in the “Cyber Gold” category.

The speaker that night was the Brazilian Ambassador. So, of course, we all went dressed as Brazilian footballer supporters. I was Rowanaldo (on the right):

It wasn’t such a successful night. Maybe we got ahead of ourselves, but on the night we didn’t even win our category.

If you wanted to be really cynical you might say that it didn’t help that at the time we were completely eating the lunch of the major sponsor (in fact just a few months later, said major sponsor would acquire the company!)

Bit, of course I wouldn’t be so bitter and twisted! :-)

I did have a quiet laugh to myself last night when the introduction video to the same category trumpeted the achievements of Sam and Trade Me, going right back to the famous heater story.

Anyway, it was a good night this time around and we all dressed much more sensibly.

Congratulations to Kiwibank and the other 2008 winners.

Disclaimer: I have a small stake in PlanHQ and also generally support Brazil (unless they’re playing England).

Monolingual

Here’s a useful little utility for OS X:

Monolingual

Monolingual screenshot

It allows you to remove languages, input methods and architectures that you don’t require (think: all of the translated help files that you will never use).

It took about 10 minutes to free up about 1.2 GB on my system. Your results may vary.

PS look closely at the list of languages in the screen shot above and see if any of them are familiar. Klingon, anybody? :-)

A good reason to write

From Steven Berlin Johnson

“I have some direct evidence (the details of which I can’t reveal for national security reasons) that Dick Cheney read The Ghost Map over Christmas, and apparently enjoyed it. (I’m kidding about the national security, but not about the fact that he read it.) Obviously, I’m not the biggest fan of Cheney, but still, there’s something very cool about the idea. It’s one of the things that’s so rewarding about writing books; I effectively got five or six uninterrupted hours to talk directly to the Vice President about my theories about cities, disease, progress — even the anti-science bent of the current administration. I didn’t get actual face time, but my ideas did.”

That’s very cool, and another good reason to write.

More and more I’m enjoying the challenge of trying to put my thoughts into words here.

I appreciate the time you all take to read them. Thank you!


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Rowan Simpson
PO Box 3210
Wellington, 6140
New Zealand

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