Monthly Archives: January 2009

Because

Farewell Ferrit

How do you feel about the demise of Ferrit?

In the days immediately following the announcement there was a lot written about this, and a number of reasons suggested for where they went wrong.

The tone of many of these posts and tweets, as Dylan pointed out, seemed to delight in their failure, which is unfortunate.

To be fair many of the people commenting had previously pointed out faults in both the site itself and the approach those running it had taken in trying to build an audience.  So, I suppose, when the plug was pulled perhaps that was a vindication of sorts?

One thing that got very little coverage was the size of the challenge.

What they were attempting to do is extremely difficult.  There are not many examples of this sort of venture turning out successfully, here or anywhere.  If they had pulled it off it would have been remarkable.

So, why do you think they failed?

Here are some popular reasons to choose from:

And, of course, some that are even more fundamental:

So, here’s an interesting question:

Let’s say they had instead done all of these things right – i.e. spent nothing, launched quietly and iterated quickly based on customer feedback, relied entirely on word of mouth and focussed relentlessly on usability, carefully crafted an authentic and likeable reputation … all the time thinking small, just like a good start-up, plus somehow finding a way to provide some sort of value to customers without screwing their suppliers and leaving enough for themselves in the middle.

Would that have been enough?

Would they have then been successful?

Maybe not.

Build it and they won’t necessarily come, no matter how good you think it is and how much you try and tell them about it.

Looking at a high profile failure, and thinking that you just need to do to the opposite to be successful can be quite misleading.

If you will, let me try and make the same point from the complete opposite direction…

Trade Me, for example

I meet a lot of people who see Trade Me as a role model for their own ventures.

I struggle with this a little, for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the success that Trade Me has achieved was not nearly as premeditated as people assume.

As Paul Graham says in his essay about wealth:

“There is a large random factor in the success of any company. So the guys you end up reading about in the papers are the ones who are very smart, totally dedicated, and win the lottery.”

That’s true.

The “win the lottery” part of that equation is not widely acknowledged.

Very few column inches are dedicated to all of the other companies started around the same time as Trade Me by people who were just as smart and dedicated, but who didn’t have things fall their way.

Secondly, evidence would suggest that few people were able to imagine, let alone predict, the success that was ahead.

During 2000 and 2001, Trade Me was not yet at break-even and was quickly running out of cash.  A lot of time was spent chasing potential investors.  Nobody was interested.

Thank goodness – or things could have worked out quite differently.

Necessity is the mother of invention: we didn’t spend much on advertising because we never had much to spend, we were a small team because there was no other option, and we were pretty much forced to start charging success fees (a model which ultimately proved to be massively lucrative), probably sooner than we would have otherwise chosen to, just to stay alive.

Looking back, and knowing the outcome, it’s easy to identify those things that sign-posted what was to come.  This is what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls “retrospective determinism” in The Black Swan.

But at the time, looking forward, the phenomenal growth which was literally just around the corner was actually far from obvious.

Which surely begs the question: how good is our collective judgement, when we look at early-stage ventures today and try todetermine whether they will be successful or not?

This is especially interesting given that many of those who cashed out when Trade Me was sold, myself included, are now involved in funding early-stage businesses, and trying to pick new winners (is there any evidence that we’re better at it than anybody else?)

Last, but definitely not least, the the environment has changed.

It’s not 1999 any more, Dr. Ropata.  Nor 2008 for that matter.

The things we did right back then are not necessarily the things you’d need to do today, even in exactly the same situation.

Trade Me was, and is, an exception.

Yes, we made the most of the opportunity, but let’s not discount the impact of being in the right place at the right time and a not insignificant dollop of luck.

The next Trade Me (almost by definition) will be an exception too, but probably won’t look anything like Trade Me did or does.

Looking at a high profile success and thinking that you just need to do the same to be successful can be quite misleading.

Did I say 6 hours?

Did I say I was hoping to finish in under 6 hours?

I meant under 7 hours, of course!

My time for 180km was 6:45.20.

That doesn’t sounds too good, but there was a brutal wind on the day – the entire up-hill leg from Cromwell up to Lake Hawea (about 65 kms) was into a gusty head wind – so in those conditions I’m actually very happy with that time.

During my training, and also on race day, I used a Garmin Forerunner 405 to track some data about how I was going.

These graphs come from the Garmin Connect website, where you can upload data from the watch and map your rides or runs, plus produce graphs of the other data.

Speed:

challenge-wanaka-speed

You can see how my speed was slowed when I turned into the wind.

Elevation:

challenge-wanaka-elevation

There were some nasty climbs in the last 50kms – just when my legs were more-or-less toast – which seemed much bigger than they look on this graph!

Heart Rate:

challenge-wanaka-heart-rate

Maybe I went a bit hard in the first couple of hours?

Cadence (number of pedals per minute):

challenge-wanaka-cadence

You can see here how I coasted a bit more in the last hour, but overall I managed to keep the pedals turning pretty consistently through the whole ride.

Player:

One nice feature they have added recently is a player, which gives you an interactive replay of a ride or a run (click the image below to view):

challenge-wanaka-player

Even if you’re not interested in the content check out the site design.  I think it’s one of the best new sites I’ve seen in a while: simple navigation, very little verbiage and a crisp, clean design which gets right out of the way and lets the content make all the noise.

Our team (Mah na mah na) finished in 63rd place out of 116 teams in 11:43.47.

Challenge Wanaka is a fantastic event, which I recommend to anybody (registration for 2010 is open now).

It’s nice to have ticked it off!

More than a feeling

Every year the Edge Foundation asks a question of some of “the most interesting minds in the world” and publishes the answers it receives.  

Past questions include What is your dangerous idea? and What are you optimistic about?, both of which have been made into books (follow the links, if you’re interested in checking them out).

This year the question is:

What would change everything?

The answers, published on their website, are interesting reading.  

There are lots, so set aside some time, but I recommend it.

One that has stuck in my head since I read it is from artist, composer and producer Brian Eno. 

Unlike most, it’s pretty grim:

“The feeling that things are inevitably going to get worse.

What would change everything is not even a thought. It’s more of a feeling.

Human development thus far has been fueled and guided by the feeling that things could be, and are probably going to be, better.

…

What if this feeling changes? What if it comes to feel like there isn’t a long term—or not one to look forward to? What if, instead of feeling that we are standing at the edge of a wild new continent full of promise and hazard, we start to feel that we’re on an overcrowded lifeboat in hostile waters, fighting to stay on board, prepared to kill for the last scraps of food and water? 

…

What happens then? 

The following: Humans fragment into tighter, more selfish bands. Big institutions, because they operate on longer time-scales and require structures of social trust, don’t cohere. There isn’t time for them. Long term projects are abandoned—their payoffs are too remote. Global projects are abandoned—not enough trust to make them work. Resources that are already scarce will be rapidly exhausted as everybody tries to grab the last precious bits.  Any kind of social or global mobility is seen as a threat and harshly resisted. Freeloaders and brigands and pirates and cheats will take control. Survivalism rules. Might will be right.

This is a dark thought, but one to keep an eye on. Feelings are more dangerous than ideas, because they aren’t susceptible to rational evaluation. They grow quietly, spreading underground, and erupt suddenly, all over the place. They can take hold quickly and run out of control (‘FIRE!’) and by their nature tend to be self-fueling. If our world becomes gripped by this particular feeling, everything it presupposes could soon become true.”

(read in full)

What do you think?

In the very least it’s a bit of counterbalance to the hope and optimism of the last 24 hours.

Start != Finish

“Why run a marathon when you can swim one?”

– Anna Marshall (aka Nemo), legend.

How do you set your goals?

Here is a lesson I learnt the hard way in Tauranga this time last year…

I completed my second half Ironman (2km swim, 90km cycle, 21km run).

As the photo shows, my time was 6:04.34.

tauranga-6-hours-4-minutes

Note: compare and contrast. :-)

That was 20 minutes better than my previous best time over that distance.

I should have been stoked.  But, after I finished, I sat on the grass inside the recovery tent feeling both completely knackered and pretty bummed.

I was aiming to break 6 hours, and had come close but missed.  The second half of the run had been especially tough mentally, as I realised that I wasn’t on pace to go under the time I wanted.

I had done the training, and on the day I went okay.  My swim was maybe a couple of minutes slower than I had expected, but my ride was as quick as I had ever gone.  I got off the bike feeling in good shape.  Unlike my first half Ironman the previous year, when the only thing that got me to the finish line at all was my stubbornness, I was running all the way to the end.  But, I just didn’t have the endurance or speed I needed.

It was a problem of expectations, and specifically how I had articulated my goal.

As I learnt in that tent, it’s pretty difficult to re-state these things after the fact.  So, best you get it right up-front.

A better way?

In this article on overcoming procrastination, Steve Pavlina suggests replacing “finish it” with “start it”.

So, rather than:

finish in under 6 hours

My goal should have been:

get to the start line in good shape and then go as fast as possible

For a start, it’s not a binary thing.  When the clock ticked over from 5 hours 59 minutes I went directly from “achieved” to “failed”, which was pretty harsh.

More importantly, it lines up well with the reason why I do these crazy events in the first place – it’s not so much about the race itself as having a good excuse to train and keep in shape.

Plus, the feeling you have when you get to the finish at these events can be magical – as long as you’re not distracted by the clock – so once you’ve got to the start line, the finish line is the next obvious place to head, and the sooner the better!

I like how this changes the way I approach things.

But, I haven’t necessarily learnt my lesson.

This weekend I’m taking on a 180km ride – the bike leg in Challenge Wanaka as part of a relay team (our team name is “Mah Na Mah Na” if you want to track our progress on the day).

It’s a long way.  For those of you in Wellington, imagine cycling to Levin and back!  But, I’ve done the hard work.  I’m ready.

Now, if I can just go fast enough, maybe I can finish in under 6 hours! :-)

Related posts I’ve written:

Other interesting posts about setting goals:

And, a billboard:

Ironman ... Yeah Right

NZ Flag

Silver Fern, Wellington

 

I am a New Zealander. 

I was born here.  My parents were both born here.  My grandparents were all born here.  Seven of my eight great-grandparents were born here too (the other was born in Scotland).

I don’t belong anywhere else.

I hate being called a European. 

I lived in London for three years, and loved it, but I don’t have any connections there.  They have a queue at Heathrow for Europeans, but I wasn’t allowed through that way.

I find it odd that our country still holds onto some traditions from our time as a part of The Empire.  The UK and Europe have changed a lot since then, and they have clearly moved on.  It seems to me that we could too.

One easy thing we should do, which would be a symbolic start to this process, is change our flag.

I say “easy” but of course the devil is in the details.  

There are people who have strong associations to the current flag – such as some former soldiers (although, those who fought against the Germans and Italians in WW2 should note that people from those countries all now enter the UK via the European queue I mentioned above).  

And, even amongst those who support this idea there is disagreement about the design that should be adopted.  

For me this is easy.  The Silver Fern is a symbol which is widely associated with New Zealand and New Zealanders.  It’s the symbol most of us would pick if we were asked to represent our country in a single image – which, after all, is the broad purpose of a flag isn’t it?  

A flag needs to be simple, and instantly recognisable.  A plain Silver Fern on a black background would achieve this brilliantly.

So, I’m pleased to see that the group behind NZ Flag have re-organised.  They have my full support and hopefully yours too.

I think they would have a better chance of success if they proposed a specific new design, rather than just advocating a change.  Their current design, which was created by Cameron Sanders from Cato Partners, is cool but is too stylised.  Unlike other Silver Ferns used by sporting teams and other organisations, the design used on a national flag would not need to be registered as a trade mark, so doesn’t necessarily need any unique design features.

I suggest something like this:

silver-fern-flag

(a design based loosely on the Tourism NZ logo)

What do you think?

If you want to add your voice in support of NZ Flag, sign-up on the website or join the Facebook group.

Thanks.

Photo Credits: Silver Fern, by Heaven’s Gate

Quantifying Nothing

“The question is: what have I been doing? 

I’ll tell you what I’ve been doing: nothing!  

I know what you’re thinking: that sounds pretty good. 

You’re thinking: I might like to do nothing myself.

Well let me tell you, doing nothing is not as easy as it looks.  I have to be careful.

Because the idea of doing anything, could easily lead to doing something, that would cut into my nothing, and that would force me to have to drop everything.

- Jerry Seinfeld, in his return to stand-up on Letterman

 

“Don’t wait for great things to happen to you, or else you might be waiting a very long time.”

- Peter Hilary, in his eulogy (select chapter 4) to his dad 

 

I increasingly struggle to answer the question: “what do you do?”

While it has often felt like I’ve been doing nothing, 2008 has actually been an eventful year.

In the last 12 months …

I finished at Xero at the end of February, and have spent the rest of the year without a job as such.

I invested in three new early-stage companies. 

I now have small shareholdings in seven different ventures:

In addition to these I have another couple of possible investments that are still in process and may be added to that list soon.

Some of these are going well, some not so well.

As well as cash I’ve put unmeasured time into many of these, which has kept me pretty busy through the year, if not necessarily hugely productive.

I bought one Lotto ticket, but didn’t win (to be fair, lightning doesn’t usually strike in the same place twice).

Despite that, we have more-or-less as much at the end of the year as we had at the start – which given the recent turbulence in the markets is actually a pretty good result, I think. (that’s in NZ dollar terms… measured in US dollars we lost a truck load)

I did a lot of flying, with trips to the US, Australia and (most memorably) Nepal, as well as about 30 domestic flights.

I drove from San Francisco to LA, which is about 738 kms via the coast road - an excellent route if you have the time.

Back in NZ, I drove about 8,800 kms, cycled just over 3,000 kms and also did a lot of running and swimming.

I went to the gym 36 times.  I didn’t actually keep track of this, I asked them to look it up for me.  I actually wish I didn’t, because from that I can work out how much it cost per visit.  Still, I’d guess I went more often than the average member.

I completed another half Ironman in Tauranga in January in 6h 04m (2km swim, 90km cycle, 21km run) and a sprint-distance triathlon in Wellington in December in 1h 24m (750m swim, 20k cycle, 5km run).  

Both of those times were personal bests, but I was well behind most of the rest of the field.  Despite that (or maybe because of that) I’ve found that I’m increasingly comfortable racing myself.

I had my VO2Max level measured at Body Lab and between June and December I increased my peak levels from 46.46 ml/kg/min to 55.13 ml/kg/min, an improvement of nearly 19%.  

I am about half a kilo lighter than I was in January ’08, but a kilo heavier than I was in January ’07.

We went skiing in Queenstown (the first time on skis for our oldest) and water skiing in Taupo (last time I did that was about 20 years ago – I remember it being much easier then).

I did a bungy jump!

I took my family for their first flight in a helicoptor, and we landed in my in-law’s backyard, which was lots of fun.  Luckily they have a big backyard!

I attended two terms of Gymbaroo with our youngest.  This was great in hindsight, although at the time it was a bit weird as I was often the only male there over three years old.

We took 2,258 digital photos (actually that’s only counting the ones we’ve kept) and 211 videos.  If we set up a slide show rotating through a photo every 15 seconds it would take nearly 9 ½ hours to see them all!

I played 31 full rounds of golf (and a few more nines).  I generally enjoyed the walk (9.7 km around Miramar Golf Club in 3 hr 24 min, for example).  I averaged just under 92 shots per round.  My handicap fell from 19.6 to 16.6 (how does one say: I’m slightly less handicapped than I was at the start of the year?)

I read lots, but not nearly as much as I would have liked (and I’m not counting Dr Seuss or Thomas The Tank Engine here).

I sold a lot of the good books I’ve read, which was very cathartic (more are still for sale, if you’re interested).  But, it didn’t reduce my queue – right now I have 13 books sitting in the pile beside my bed waiting for some attention.

I switched to using an iPhone, and didn’t look back

I attended Foo Camp in Warkworth, Webstock in Wellington (where I interviewed Sam), ETech in San Diego and even a couple of Petcha Kucha evenings.  They were all excellent.

I got about 7,400 emails (not counting deleted messages and spam) and sent about 3,800.  

According to RescueTime I spent 1,554 hours using my laptop during the year, 358 hours of those on email (actually, even more than that as I only started using RescueTime in Jan).  That seems like too many.

rescuetime-2008-small

(click for full size)

I declared blog bankrupcy in March.  Today I have exactly 100 RSS feeds that I follow in Google Reader, and am increasingly impressed by the quality of the stuff I find each day (lately I tend to read blogs mostly on my iPhone when I have a spare minute, so it doesn’t feel as much of a burden as it used to). 

I started using Delicious in April and since then I have bookmarked 391 interesting web pages.

I published 171 new blog posts - thanks to everybody who took some time to read them and perhaps even add a comment or two.

Included in this tally was the first guest post.  Hopefully there will be more of these in 2009 (drop me a line if you’re interested in writing one).

To balance all of that, I spent a whole week in May without checking email, blogging or reading feeds.  It was great.  I recommend it. 

I enjoyed the Olympics in HD in August, but faded a bit after the first week.

We saw some shows, and also made it out to see three movies on the big screen (Ironman, Dark Knight & Wall-E, since you asked).  We watched lots more on the still-big-but-not-as-big screen at home.

At home we used 10,750 kWh of electricity.  That seems like a lot.  It would be interesting to know exactly where it was all consumed around the house.  The last two points above contributed, I’m sure.

Last, but certainly not least, our extended family grew by two with the addition of a couple of cute nephews.  And, thankfully, all of us who started 2008 have made it to the end.

Did I forget anything?

 

At times during the year I’ve felt a bit down about how much I was achieving with my time.  But, when I read that list I find it very hard to complain!

I wonder what will be on the list this time next year?

Bring on 2009…